Saturday, July 30, 2011
There will be football this year!
I’m so happy that the NFL lock out is over. It looks like there will be football this year after all!
And all the moves the last couple of days have been crazy. Nnamdi Asomugha went to the Eagles, the Lions have one of the best DLines in the league and Kevin Kolb is in Zona. Other big names are Chad OchoCinco being traded to the Patriots, McNabb going to the Vikings and Hasselbeck signing with Tennessee Titans. I'm sure that every one's fantasy football draft boards have changed drastically over the last few days, and for good reason.
What does this mean to normal every week football bettors like you and me? That's a great question. With so much upheaval in the league and a shortened workout schedule and preseason, I would imagine the teams with the least amount of turnover will be the ones with the faster starts out of the gate. I would expect these teams to be able to perform better the first few weeks. The important thing to remember is that this edge can quickly fade after a couple of weeks when every team becomes comfortable playing as a single unit.
Teams that I would expect to stumble at the beginning are the other with new QBs and big changes on the Oline. If the price is right, I would bet against these teams the first few weeks, and then to start to bet on them as they improve. The thinking is that people would over value the Vikings with McNabb in week 1 and 2, but if the team loses and/or doesn't cover, the public will probably start to bet against him in week 3 just as the team is starting to come together. So the play in this example is to bet against the Vikings in the first 2 weeks and then on them in week 3.
Of course there are a lot more things to consider when placing a bet (like preseason performance, recent new, THE OTHER TEAM), but this is one angle that should not be ignored. Remember this is a weird year, where teams have not gotten their normal amount of practice coming in the season. Expect that to benefit the teams with the least amount of new faces.
That's all for now.
The Online Sports Bettor
And all the moves the last couple of days have been crazy. Nnamdi Asomugha went to the Eagles, the Lions have one of the best DLines in the league and Kevin Kolb is in Zona. Other big names are Chad OchoCinco being traded to the Patriots, McNabb going to the Vikings and Hasselbeck signing with Tennessee Titans. I'm sure that every one's fantasy football draft boards have changed drastically over the last few days, and for good reason.
What does this mean to normal every week football bettors like you and me? That's a great question. With so much upheaval in the league and a shortened workout schedule and preseason, I would imagine the teams with the least amount of turnover will be the ones with the faster starts out of the gate. I would expect these teams to be able to perform better the first few weeks. The important thing to remember is that this edge can quickly fade after a couple of weeks when every team becomes comfortable playing as a single unit.
Teams that I would expect to stumble at the beginning are the other with new QBs and big changes on the Oline. If the price is right, I would bet against these teams the first few weeks, and then to start to bet on them as they improve. The thinking is that people would over value the Vikings with McNabb in week 1 and 2, but if the team loses and/or doesn't cover, the public will probably start to bet against him in week 3 just as the team is starting to come together. So the play in this example is to bet against the Vikings in the first 2 weeks and then on them in week 3.
Of course there are a lot more things to consider when placing a bet (like preseason performance, recent new, THE OTHER TEAM), but this is one angle that should not be ignored. Remember this is a weird year, where teams have not gotten their normal amount of practice coming in the season. Expect that to benefit the teams with the least amount of new faces.
That's all for now.
The Online Sports Bettor
