The Online Sports Bettor

The first 4 weeks of the NFL are usually the hardest to handicap because teams change year over year. Every year coaches and players are fired, drafted, free agencied, traded, and retired. Team chemistry changes as well as agendas, and since the preseason is useless, all these changes take a few weeks in the regular season to sort themselves out before people can really gage which teams are for real and which ones suck.

That said, the lines makers have the same problems that sports bettors have. No one really knows what teams will move up and down the rankings this year. A lot of people thought the Giants would fall off, yet they were fine the other night. I bet that they would make the playoffs this year, and now they are 1 game closer. (I also bet the Giants the other night, but didn't have time to post it so I'm not including it in my record for this season's football picks.)

So who am I on this week? Well, I'm still watching a few line ups and I might post a game or two tomorrow, but as of now I'm on:

Arizona Cardinals -3 (-105) over San Francisco 49ers (bet at BoDog)

I don't believe in San Fran's new offense until I see it. And I'm sure that it will take a few weeks at full speed to sort itself out. The Cards have made some nice improvements on defense, and while Edgerrin James (who is now 30) is still their starting running back, they have one of the best #1 and #2 receiver combo in the league. I'm pretty confident in ARZ's defense this week, and I'm starting them in one of my fantasy football leagues.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3½ (-120) over New Orleans Saints (also bet at BoDog)

I think people are underestimating the Bucs (and maybe over estimating the Saints) this year. Although this might be the same as the last 3 years since the Bucs are 5-1 ATS (against the spread) in their last 6 meetings. They are also 5-0 ATS when playing in New Orleans over the last 5 years. Add to the fact that 9 of their last 12 games have been decided by less than a TD... I'll take the non-public team getting the points with the better defense and sleeper offense.

Those are the two games that I'm on so far.

Like I said, I might be back with more tomorrow.

Good Luck

The Online Sports Bettor

Penn State -16 -110 (bet at BoDog)

Oregon State had a bad showing vs Stanford last week and ended up losing by 12. I'm surprised that this line is so low since Penn State (ranked 19) is playing at home and showed last week that they have no problem running up the score in their 66-10 win over Coastal Carolina. There is a lot of value in this game.

1-0 so far this year for college football. I might be back with more for the later games.

Good Luck.

The Online Sports Bettor

"Last week Sarah Palin claimed that as a hockey mom, she is like a pit bull (with lipstick). While she might like to portray herself this way, I think John McCain would have faired much better by picking an actual pit bull as his running mate. Here is why."

Read the rest here: 5 Reasons Why a Pit Bull Would Be a Better VP than Palin

Will the New York Giants make the playoffs During the 2008 NFL Season? Yes –115

It’s amazing how little respect the Giants are getting this preseason. This was the same team that won the Super Bowl last year, yet you can get almost even odds on them making the playoffs this year. It’ll take that bet. (They made the playoffs in 2006 too).

2008 Regular Season Wins - New England Patriots – UNDER 12.5 –105

I know that the Pats won all 16 last year, and I’m not trying to hate them for it. The reality of it is that winning 12.5 games in very hard in the NFL. You can get into the playoffs with about 9 wins and have a good seeding with 12. Don’t forget that teams with 12 wins usually rest players in the last week of the regular season. Lastly, they lost the Super Bowl last year. Recent history shows that teams who lose the Super Bowl often don’t play as well the following year…

BoDog has a few other interesting team props, but these are the only 2 that I’m betting. Check them out if you are looking for the odds on your own team as they have season props for the whole league as well as a lot of individual player props.

Good Luck

The Online Sports Bettor

Fresno State +4 (-115)

Fresno State opens the season ranked 25th in the USA Today poll (not ranked in the AP). Rutgers is not ranked in either poll. Which do you think is the better team?

Rutgers is getting too much respect with this line. They lost Ray Rice to the NFL, they are only bringing back 2 starters on the O-line, and their defense is not as strong as it was last year. They also have a new kicker... Anyone remember Ito?

Fresno State might not play a good defense, but doesn't the saying go "the best defense is a good offense"? Well, that's what Fresno State is bring to the table. They are returning 10 starters to an offense that was ranked 38 best in the country last year.

Good Luck.

The Online Sports Bettor

So I thought this was pretty funny.