Saturday, January 28, 2006
Super Bowl XL - A Prop Bet and more
Secondly, if you’re looking for my Super Bowl Side Bets, check out this post. These were the early bets that I placed right after the NFL Championship games, were my initial line gave Seattle a nice edge over Pittsburgh. I’ll be looking at the Super Bowl’s over/under line and various prop bets through out this upcoming week, so check back here to see these. Just so you know, I rarely bet futures, parlays, teasers, or props, but there are so many props on this game, that you can find value in them. If you are new to sports betting or a little confused about what I’m talking about, a quick trip to The Basics to Wagering on Sports might help you out.
Finally, we get to the meat of the post… A Super Bowl Prop Bet!
(Bet @ Nine.com)
Wager type : Proposition/Future
Description : 2006 Superbowl XL - Receivers and Tight End Props
Total pass receiving yards made by Bobby Engram
Over 34½ receiving yrds -120
Engram is Seattle’s #2 wide receiver, behind Darrell Jackson. With Jackson out for most of the season, Engram move into the one slot for the first 4 weeks of the year. He then missed three weeks with injured ribs, and Joe Jurevicius became the Seahawks’ star in his absence. Now Jackson and Engram are back and healthy for the Super Bowl, and Matt Hasselbeck is on the biggest hot streak of his career.
Jackson retook the #1 receiver slot after returning from injury. This pushed Engram into the #2. With the Steelers’ secondary focused mainly on Jackson (not to mention releases from Jeremy Stevens), Engram should get good looks this week from Hasselbeck. Expect him to have a decent day in a season where he averaged 54.9 receiving yards per game. :O)
That’s all for now.
Good Luck
- The Online Sports Bettor
Thursday, January 26, 2006
100% cash bonus at sports book nine.com!
CLICK HERE to open an account with nine.com and receive this bonus. Just click this link and use bonus code "99for99" when making your first deposit.
One bettor said:
Good Luck :O)Deposited $99 at nine, got $99 bonus, and 10% ( $9.90). $99 became $207.90.
Used promocode 99for99
That'll get me to try them !
- The Online Sports Bettor
EDIT: Nine did not mean to give players the added 10% deposit bonus on top of the free $99. They have since removed this bonus from this player's account and will just give you $198 for your $99 deposit going forward. Still a great deal :O)
MLB Futures Bet
2006 MLB Regular Season Wins
Oakland Athletics Over 88 wins -104
I think the guys at Baseball Prospectus said it best:
There’s not a team in baseball with as much starting-pitching depth as the A’s have... When you consider the depth of the bench and bullpen, the A’s may have the strongest 16-25 roster in the game. That matters over 162 games.
Good Luck.
- The Online Sports Bettor
Lingerie Bowl IIIPlay online at Bodog, win a chance to tackle a lingerie model!
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
Sirius Satellite Radio vs. XM Satellite Radio
Searching Google:
Sirius has 18,400,000 hits
XM has 14,000,000 hits
XM has 3 million more hits on yahoo…
Anyway, I have Sirius Satellite Radio and love it. A friend of mine has XM Radio, and he likes his. We've both had these radios for over a year. The difference between the two of us is that I actually have a loyalty to Sirius where according to him, he would drop XM if Sirius was significantly cheaper…
This got me to thinking. Why wouldn’t I change if XM was let’s say $10 a month and Sirius was $20?
It wouldn’t be the sports channels as both radios have the ESPN stations. Sirius has all the NFL games (which is great!), but XM has all the MLB games, which I would love. Sirius also has all the NBA and NHL games, but I don’t really care about these too much (until the playoffs anyway), so I’m not counting them just yet…
Sirius kills XM is the talk “shock jock” radio department. Sirius has Howard Stern and Bubba the Love Sponge (both hilarious). XM has Opie and Anthony, who were funny, but kind of annoying when I listened to them out of Boston.
Comedy channels = tie
News channels = tie
Music stations (specifically rock, rap, and dance) = tie
Both also have my local traffic and weather reports (NYC).
So all and all, they match up pretty evenly… I guess it comes down to the shock jocks and maybe the NFL (it would be hard to give that up).
Is Howard Stern really worth an extra $10/month to me? As $120 a year doesn’t seem like too much to me, he probably is… Wow, that’s weird…
Monday, January 23, 2006
Early Super Bowl Bet - Seattle Seahawks vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Seattle Seahawks +3.5 +102
Seattle Seahawks Money Line +168
I jumped on this early to ensure that I could get the 1/2 point above 3. I also bet the Money Line here... while I think most of the money will be on the Steelers in the next two weeks, you can never be sure (it depends a lot on who gets the most hype). Anyway, I wanted to bet the Seahawks now as my initial line puts them at 6. I'll still continue to handicap this game, and if anything significant makes me change sides (or back off the side) I'll post it here.
I'll also add my thoughts to this game and pick my Super Bowl Play of the Week over the next two weeks.
Good Luck
- The Online Sports Bettor
Lingerie Bowl III
Play online at Bodog, win a chance to tackle a lingerie model!
Super Bowl 'props' likely to hit the betting boards
An early look at some unspectacular but profitable Super Bowl 'props' likely to hit the betting boards
With the Super Bowl less than two weeks away, the minds of sports bettors in Las Vegas are turning to the propositions -- or "props," meaning unique, offbeat wagering opportunities -- that sports books will be offering on the big game.
The really fun props involving over/unders on the statistics of individual players and the like will come later. So will those crazy "cross-sport" props that link various aspects of the Super Bowl to the day's baskeball, hockey and golf action.
In the early going, we're more concerned with some of the old standbys, the nuts-and-bolts props you can count on seeing on the betting boards each year.
These props might not be sexy or outrageously creative, but historically they have been profitable for sharp bettors ...
* Overtime
Depending on your method of analysis, the odds against the Super Bowl going into overtime are likely about 15-1 to 20-1. But if past years are any indication, bettors will have the opportunity to lay a much shorter price that the game will not go into overtime, probably in the neighborhood of minus-600 to minus-800.
That's an example of what gamblers call an "overlay," meaning a wager that offers favorable odds to the bettor.
For instance, last year at this time, the Palms sports book opened "no overtime" at minus-600 (risk $6 to win $1), though it was bet up quickly to minus-850. The Las Vegas Hilton opened the same prop at minus-700; and Harrah's and the Rio had it at minus-850. At any of those prices, I'd consider it to be among the very best bets in the casino.
The top price you'll see on "yes, the game will go into overtime" will be around 8-1 or 9-1.
The people who get excited about a 9-1 payout on the Super Bowl going into overtime must be the same people who get excited when they make a blackjack and it pays off at odds of 6-5.
* Total turnovers
Most teams that advance to the Super Bowl are fundamentally sound enough to take care of the football. I don't think this year will be an exception.
Typically the over/under on fumbles lost by both teams is set at 1 1/2. Last year, the Hilton opened "under 1 1/2" at minus-130 (risk $1.30 to win $1) with "over 1 1/2" even money.
The over/under on interceptions by both teams is usually 2 1/2 with a heavier premium on the under. Last year at the Hilton, the under was minus-180, the over plus-150.
Because both of these props went "over" last year (there were two lost fumbles and three interceptions), I expect to find more attractive prices when I bet them "under" this year.
* Will either team score in the last two minutes of the first half?
The odds on this prop are usually a function of the total number of points both teams are expected to score in the game. For example, two years ago the over/ under in the Super Bowl between the Panthers and the Patriots was 38 1/2 points, and the odds on "yes, there will be a score in the last two minutes of the first half" were minus-200.
Last year, the over/under in the game between the Patriots and the Eagles was 47 points, and the odds that there would be a score in the last two minutes of the first half were higher, at minus-250.
As long as you figure about 50 points will be scored in the Super Bowl (a reasonable assumption), in his 2001 book "Beat the Sports Books," author Dan Gordon makes a compelling case for betting that there will be a score in the last two minutes of the first half at odds of minus-220 to minus-235.
I predict those odds will be available this year.
Bulletize It! - Blog Directory
Weekend Recap
Football Bets: 2-2 for +0.02 units
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 -104 NFL Play of the Week - WIN
Denver Broncos -4 +104 - Lose
Seattle Seahawks -5 +112 (1/2 unit) - WIN
Denver Broncos -4.5 +116 (1/2 unit) - Lose
Boxing Bet: 0-1 for -1.0 units
Erik Morales -103
Record on all posted football bets: 35-21-1, +13.46 units
Record on posted boxing bets: 1-2, -1.86 units
- The Online Sports Bettor
Sunday, January 22, 2006
NFL Playoffs - Final Card
Seattle Seahawks -5 +112 (1/2 unit)
Denver Broncos -4.5 +116 (1/2 unit)
Alternate line plays: I like both of these, probably because they are extensions of my other plays. If I win one, I'm plus money on the both.
Football Bets Posted Earlier:
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 -104 NFL Play of the Week
Denver Broncos -4 +104
No over/unders this week.
Record on all posted football bets: 33-19-1, +13.26 units
Good Luck
- The Online Sports Bettor
