Saturday, November 26, 2005

Week 12 NFL Play - Final Card

After a review of the final action and last minute injury updates, this is my final card for Sunday. I will be traveling most of the day tomorrow, so I feel confident in saying this :O)

Denver -2 *Win*
KC -3
SD Charges -3
Oakland -7

Good Luck all

- The Online Sports Bettor

Sports Betting - Money Management

I wrote up a little something sometime ago on money management for sports betting to help me determine what kind of system would work for me. I put this together after reading a lot about sports betting money management and a few real life hard knocks. I often come back to this to help myself in my sports betting ways and to try to reinforce my practices. No matter how smart you are, a lack of discipline with your money can always kill you when it comes to betting sports.

Anyway, here it is:

One unit is equal to a percentage of your bankroll, say 2%. This percentage can vary based on the sports bettor and the amount of his bankroll. So say you have a bankroll of $5,000 and you decide on a unit size of 1% of your bankroll, one unit would be $50.

When betting a play, only bet 1 unit, no matter how strong a play may be. The first reason for this is that even your strongest bets will not always win. The real reason for this is that if you get into a habit of fluctuating your bet size, you will continue to do so. This lends way to bad money management practices, such as chasing loses and un-proportionally increasing your bets when winning. If you are a good handicapper, bad money management is what makes you lose.

Once you begin winning, you may adjust the size of your bets on a monthly or weekly basis to the set percentage of your bankroll. So if after 1 month, if your bankroll is $6,000, you should adjust the size of your unit to $60. Likewise, if you are now betting with $4,000, your unit size should be $40.


Currently, I am betting by risking 1 unit. For the example above, if a bet were -110, I would risk $50 to win $45.45. Many sports bettors betting -110, would 11 to win 10. For the same example, a bettor would lay $55 to win $50. If one is doing this, it is fine. My system errs on the side on conservancy, and I know this. Even though, my action is sufficient, I’m currently re-evaluating my use of “at risk” unit bets vs. “to win” unit bets.

I am also considering increasing my bet sizes by my vig lost. By this I mean, if I lose a play where I bet $50 to win $45.45, and win, $4.55 is the tax paid to the sportsbook. If I lose this bet, I will lose the whole $50, but I lose $4.55 to the sportsbook either way. I have realized that by increasing by current bets by this amount lost to the sportsbooks that I can play with no juice… It’s rather complicated, but if I decide to do this going forward, I will write it up here.

Something I will say every week:
It is important to have several online sportsbooks, in order to line shop, so that you might always get the best line for your bets.

Okay, enough for now. I have been betting some college football today, but since I’m on “vacation”, I have to go to a coffee shop to use the internet. Yes, I’m here right now. Anyway, I can’t update the site with these plays as they happen, so I’m not posting these bets at all.

You have my NFL for this week anyway :O)

- The Online Sports Bettor

Friday, November 25, 2005

No Need to Click Here - I'm just claiming my feed at Feedster

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Luck and Sports Betting

Denver covered my spread by 1 point yesterday. They did this by beating Dallas in overtime by a field goal. Some might call that luck. I don’t. I call it probability.

Look at last week. I was on the Jaguars -4, and they were up 10 going into the last minute of play. Down 10, Tennessee got the ball, drove down the field, and scored a TD with 22 seconds left. Tennessee then tried an onside kick, didn’t get it, and the game was over. I lost that bet by 1 point due to a last minute backdoor cover by the Titans. Bad Luck? No probability.

What I mean by probability is that these plays are going to happen. Me, you, everybody is going to loss games that they believe they should have won. The opposite is true too. We are going to win games, that we probably should have lost. Like if you bet on the Titans last week :O)

Why doesn’t this bother me? First off, it is a two way street. Second off, these plays even themselves out over time. Figuring I bet between 70 to 90 games a year in the NFL, there are going to be quite a few that I win or loss by 1 or 2 points (if not a ½ point). It’s not because I bet mediocre plays. It’s because no matter how strong a play might be, the outcomes are still determined by men playing a game that can change at the drop of a hat. Unexpected injuries, turnovers, and penalties occur all the time and whatever edge you had when you bet the game, could be completely erased the first 2 minutes.

Every game I bet I believe that I have a distinct advantage over the sportsbooks and the public. I put Denver as a good play yesterday for very good reasons. (I had them favored by 6, etc.) But regardless of the reasons, I can’t expect to win all of my plays. I can only hope to win almost 60% of all my plays in the long run, because no one ever does better than that (yes, even me). So for every play I bet, I can reasonably expect to lose 4 out of 10 of them. Because of this, every play I win by 1 point, I expect to lose another by 1. If it happens, if it doesn’t, I don’t really care. I just expect it.

Anyway, 1-0 so far this weekend…3-2 YTD for posted plays, +0.74 units

Other Plays:
KC -3

Added today:
SD Charges -3
Oakland -7

Good Luck all

- The Online Sports Bettor

Tuesday, November 22, 2005

Early NFL Plays - Week 12

Well, I'm gonna be outta town again this weekend. That's right, going down to the Outer Banks for Turkey Day, Black Friday, College Football Saturday, and coming home NFL Sunday.

Atlantic City was fun, as always. But I didn’t win this time… I guess you can’t win every time, right?

We went to Jay-Z’s new Atlantic City 40/40 club Saturday night. Me and the crew got VIP tables and bottles of Champaign… had a great time.

Anyway, I have 2 early NFL plays this week, one on Thursday.

Early NFL plays:
Denver -2
Bet this one fast, because I can already see the line moving up. Remember my play last week before the lines moved ;O)

Anyway, that being said, Denver is one of the best teams in the NFL this year, and I can see them with a shot at the Super Bowl. So far this year, they have played 5 teams with winning records and beat 4 of them. After shutting out the Jets last week, I don’t see this team slowing down. Give the 2, and bet the winner.

Kansas City -3
For some reason, it seems like the line makers are not giving this team the respect that it deserves. I was on them last week, and I’m riding this train to the bank (or until it crashes).

Good Luck this week.

- The Online Sports Bettor

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Monday, November 21, 2005

Updated Record after Week 11

2-2 YTD on posted plays
- 0.17 units YTD

I bet at several different sportsbook and locals, so my plays are not always 11-10 odds.

I always recommend having several different sportsbooks at your disposal to find the best lines at the best odds.

See plays below in the post titled NFL Week 11 - Recap

- The Online Sports Bettor

Authorities Crack Down on NYC Poker Clubs - Yahoo! News

Authorities Crack Down on NYC Poker Clubs - Yahoo! News

What a shame... And I used to play poker at Playstation regularly. This club closing is old news, but it still saddens me. A-Rod even played there one night with his cousin. He sat at a 2-5 blind no-limit game, won a couple of grand and left.
The club was great, on the corner of 5th ave and 14th street on the second floor of some huge building. They had a camera outside and ask your name as they stared at you through the len before they would let you through the buzzing doors. ( and only then if you were a member, of course).
Inside, it was well lit with free drinks and snacks. They had about 10-12 tables in the place, a big screen TV and other smaller ones hanging from the walls. I played no-limit holdem, 4-8, and 10-20 there often when I was staffed in the city. The place was a fun place to go. The staff was great. I have a friend who won 5gs there one night. They even ran daily tournaments.

Anyway, enough reminiscing for now...

- The Online Sports Bettor

NFL Week 11 - Recap

2-2, after getting robbed in the Jags game. Well, even is better than losing…

quick recap:

KC: 45-17. Easy cover.

Jags: Yeah, lost this one by 1 point due to a last minute Titans TD with 22 seconds left. The backdoor cover screwed us again.

AZ: The Cards covered easily and ended up winning the game outright by 10.

Bills: Did they forget it was Sunday? Well, at least I started Brees in my fantasy team this week.

Will be back tonight with YTD units on all posted plays.

- The Online Sports Bettor