Saturday, September 06, 2008

NFL Week 1 Football Bets - Cardinals vs 49ers, Bucs vs Saints

The first 4 weeks of the NFL are usually the hardest to handicap because teams change year over year. Every year coaches and players are fired, drafted, free agencied, traded, and retired. Team chemistry changes as well as agendas, and since the preseason is useless, all these changes take a few weeks in the regular season to sort themselves out before people can really gage which teams are for real and which ones suck.

That said, the lines makers have the same problems that sports bettors have. No one really knows what teams will move up and down the rankings this year. A lot of people thought the Giants would fall off, yet they were fine the other night. I bet that they would make the playoffs this year, and now they are 1 game closer. (I also bet the Giants the other night, but didn't have time to post it so I'm not including it in my record for this season's football picks.)

So who am I on this week? Well, I'm still watching a few line ups and I might post a game or two tomorrow, but as of now I'm on:

Arizona Cardinals -3 (-105) over San Francisco 49ers (bet at BoDog)

I don't believe in San Fran's new offense until I see it. And I'm sure that it will take a few weeks at full speed to sort itself out. The Cards have made some nice improvements on defense, and while Edgerrin James (who is now 30) is still their starting running back, they have one of the best #1 and #2 receiver combo in the league. I'm pretty confident in ARZ's defense this week, and I'm starting them in one of my fantasy football leagues.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3½ (-120) over New Orleans Saints (also bet at BoDog)

I think people are underestimating the Bucs (and maybe over estimating the Saints) this year. Although this might be the same as the last 3 years since the Bucs are 5-1 ATS (against the spread) in their last 6 meetings. They are also 5-0 ATS when playing in New Orleans over the last 5 years. Add to the fact that 9 of their last 12 games have been decided by less than a TD... I'll take the non-public team getting the points with the better defense and sleeper offense.

Those are the two games that I'm on so far.

Like I said, I might be back with more tomorrow.

Good Luck

The Online Sports Bettor