Wednesday, January 18, 2006

NFL Playoff Bets - Conference Championships

Game selection is drastically down this time of year. On any given weekend during the regular season, I may only bet 2 to 8 games including over/unders. This week there are only 2 games, yet I’ll probably be betting both sides and both over/unders. Why?

Well, with the quality teams that are matching up here, most would think that they are a coin toss (see Two for the Money), but not this bettor. I’ve done enough playoff betting to know where to hedge my bets this week. And it’s really pretty easy… fade the public.

Seattle Seahawks -3.5 -104 NFL Play of the Week
Seattle had a cupcake schedule this year and won the NFC. Carolina had a cupcake schedule and ended up a wildcard team. Carolina is playing their 4th consecutive road game. That’s a lot of trips for anyone. Seattle is undefeated at home. Look for Seattle to cover.

Denver Broncos -4 +104
I bet this on Sunday thinking that the line might move up. Well I was wrong, and it moved the other way. Anyway, this is my position and I can't move off it now, but if you’re looking to bet this game, expect a better line. I’ve been saying for weeks that Denver was the 2nd best team in the NFL, only second to the Colts who Pittsburgh knock off last week. One might say that with Pitt beating the Colts, they claim the title. I’m sorry, but it doesn’t work like that. Now Denver is the best team left in the postseason. Look for them to cover.

I will most probably bet both unders this week too. I’m holding off until closer to the weekend, as the public loves to bet the over, and I can see these lines only getting better. So far 68% of all the over/under bets on the Seahawks game have been on the over, yet the line has moved down 1.5 points. There is a lot of money on the under of this game, and it could very well turn into a system play just like last week's winner. Either way, I’ll probably lineup on both unders…

Record on all posted football bets: 33-19-1, +13.26 units

Good Luck.

- The Online Sports Bettor