Saturday, February 06, 2010

The Online Sports Bettor's Super Bowl Bets

Wayne hurt his knee yesterday. My over bet on him doesn't look as strong as it did earlier in the week. Unbelievably, the odds on this bet haven't changed. Wayne is expected to play on Sunday, and he's played with injury most of the year. This injury is still a little disconcerting considering I have money on him.

And onto the main event:
SUPER BOWL XLIV - Sun Life Stadium - Miami, FL
New Orleans Saints +6 over Indianapolis Colts
The Saints had a great season, and should match up well against the Colts. Dwight Freeney's injury could also have more of an impact than the public thinks. Freeney might be the best shot the Colts have at shutting down the Saints powerful offense, and if he doesn't play (or play injured), it would have a big impact on the Colts D. The Saints defense has also been playing well. If their offense can control the clock better than the Jet's did, their defense should be able to get to Manning and prevent big plays.

SUPER BOWL XLIV - Sun Life Stadium - Miami, FL
New Orleans Saints/Indianapolis Colts UNDER 56½
This is the highest total ever set on the Super Bowl, and the public loves to bet the over. That alone tells you that there is value in the under. After running some numbers, I have to agree. I think this total should be set around 54.

More prop bets I'm betting:
Will Pierre Thomas score a TD in the game? Yes (-105)
The Saints have a lot of running backs, but Thomas is still their #1. Expect him to get work inside the 20s.

Super Bowl XLIV - How long will it take Carrie Underwood to sing the National Anthem? Under 1 Minute and 42 Seconds (-115)
I know it's a ridiculous bet, but her average is 1:38 minutes. This bet has some value.

I'm already on:
Total Receiving Yards – Reggie Wayne over 82½ (even odds)
Total Passing Yards – Drew Brees under 300½ (-130)

All bets made at BoDog.

That should be it for the big game. If I make anymore bets, I'll update here.

Good Luck
The Online Sports Bettor